Energy headlines change quickly, but year-end data offers a clearer picture for oil and gas investors planning ahead. As 2026 approaches, the most important signals come down to three simple factors: how much energy the world is expected to use, how much new supply is coming online, and what that balance may mean for prices and project performance.
Demand finished 2025 on a steady track
One encouraging year-end takeaway is that global energy demand is still expected to grow, even though that growth is not evenly spread across all regions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s December 2025 outlook projects global liquid fuels demand to increase by about 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. Most of this growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, particularly across parts of Asia, where energy use continues to expand alongside economic activity.
A helpful way to think about this as an investor is to focus less on any single country and more on the overall direction of demand. When growth comes from many regions, oil and gas projects tied to actual production can remain relevant across different market conditions, especially when operators focus on cost control and careful execution.
Asia and emerging markets continue to drive demand growth
Year-end trends become clearer when you look at where new energy demand is coming from. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s December outlook points to continued growth in countries such as China and India, with China expected to increase oil demand by about 250,000 barrels per day in 2025 and another 300,000 barrels per day in 2026. India is also expected to add steady demand year over year.
For U.S.-based oil and gas investors, this matters because global demand supports the value of reliable domestic production. Even as the global energy system evolves, oil and natural gas continue to support many everyday needs, including transportation, manufacturing, and power generation. This broad demand helps support the long-term role of U.S. energy production for both domestic use and global markets.
Supply stayed strong in 2025, with a steadier pace expected in 2026
On the supply side, 2025 highlighted the strength and resilience of U.S. production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s December 2025 outlook shows U.S. crude oil production averaging about 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, with production expected to remain near that level at about 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The same outlook projects Brent crude prices averaging around $69 per barrel in 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, reflecting expectations for higher inventories and a more balanced market.
For investors, this is where a realistic outlook can be helpful. Softer price forecasts do not automatically point to weaker opportunities. Instead, they tend to favor well-planned projects, cost discipline, and experienced operators, which are often key factors behind more consistent performance over time.
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Inventories and OPEC+ decisions continue to shape the market
Inventory trends are an important year-end signal because they can affect prices even when demand is growing. The EIA expects global oil inventories to continue increasing through 2026, which helps explain its outlook for more moderate pricing. At the same time, decisions by OPEC+ and changes in how countries like China manage their inventories can still influence price movement.
For investors looking ahead to 2026, the key takeaway is not to try to predict policy decisions. Instead, it helps to recognize that supply management can shift market conditions faster than expected. This is why many direct oil and gas investors focus on projects designed to perform across a range of price environments, rather than relying on ideal market conditions alone.
Natural gas trends are supporting the broader energy picture
Year-end energy trends are not just about oil. Natural gas remains an important part of the picture because it supports reliable power generation, industrial activity, and growing LNG exports. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s December 2025 outlook, U.S. liquefied natural gas exports are expected to increase from about 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to roughly 16 billion cubic feet per day in 2026. During the same period, Henry Hub natural gas prices are projected to average around $3.56 per MMBtu in 2025 and about $4.01 per MMBtu in 2026.
The EIA also forecasts U.S. dry natural gas production averaging approximately 109 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, highlighting the scale and consistency of domestic supply.
For investors, this reinforces an important point. Even when oil gets most of the attention, natural gas still plays a key role in how cash flow develops over time and in the long-term value of many U.S. production areas and development plans.
Power demand and data centers continue to drive energy needs
One trend that stood out in 2025 is rising electricity demand, including growth tied to large energy users such as data centers. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects U.S. electricity generation to grow by about 2.4 percent in 2025 and another 1.7 percent in 2026, with part of that increase linked to expanding demand from large customers.
The International Energy Agency also expects global electricity consumption to continue rising into 2026, highlighting the importance of reliable energy sources for grid stability across many regions.
This trend does not require hype to be meaningful. It simply highlights why natural gas and strong domestic production remain important as investors look ahead to 2026.
How these trends can guide investor planning
When you put the year-end signals together, they point to a market where demand continues to grow, U.S. supply remains strong, and prices may be influenced more by inventories and policy decisions than by demand alone. In this type of environment, thoughtful project selection often matters more than broad assumptions about where prices might go.
For approved and qualified investors thinking ahead to 2026, a simple planning framework can be helpful:
- Look for projects with disciplined development plans and a clear focus on cost control
- Review assumptions using more than one price scenario, rather than relying on a single outlook
- Pay attention to inventory trends and OPEC+ decisions, as these can affect pricing conditions
- Keep natural gas and LNG trends in mind, since they continue to support overall energy demand
It is also important to keep tax planning aligned with how you invest. Because structures and tax treatment can vary, coordinating with your CPA before finalizing year-end decisions can help avoid surprises later.
Stepping into 2026 with confidence
The year-end outlook heading into 2026 is encouraging for oil and gas investors who value real assets, strong U.S. production, and disciplined operations, even as commodity prices move through normal ups and downs. For those who want to better understand how opportunities are structured and how partners are supported throughout the life of an investment, you can review DW Energy Group’s approach here.
When you are ready, our team is available to discuss how these trends may align with your goals, timing, and overall strategy.
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Sources
“Short-Term Energy Outlook December 2025,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf
“Short-Term Energy Outlook,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
“Short-Term Energy Outlook Natural Gas,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php
“Short Term Energy Outlook Global Liquid Fuels,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
“Monthly Oil Market Report,” OPEC, https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html
“Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 Demand,” International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-2025/demand-global-electricity-use-to-grow-strongly-in-2025-and-2026
“About Us,” DW Energy Group, LLC, https://www.dwenergygroup.com/about-us/
“DW’s Approach,” DW Energy Group, LLC, https://www.dwenergygroup.com/dw-approach/